BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes offered insights on the potential trajectory of the crypto market in 2024. He drew analogies between financial markets and avalanche processes, highlighting potential impacts from Middle East tensions.

Parallels with Avalanche Processes

After exploring avalanche science in New Zealand, Hayes found parallels between the snowpack and the world's financial markets. He notes that the Israel-Iran conflict acts as a persistent weak layer in financial markets, threatening significant consequences if tensions escalate.

War and Energy Prices

Hayes considers two future scenarios. In the first, tensions do not escalate, and markets, including crypto, can remain stable. In the second scenario, a full-scale war could lead to a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices due to energy price surges.

Bitcoin's Future and Fed Influence

Hayes anticipates inflationary effects from war and believes the Federal Reserve's response could boost Bitcoin's value, as increased money printing to finance war would create opportunities for Bitcoin's growth, despite reducing positions in less stable assets.

Arthur Hayes believes that despite potential geopolitical risks, Bitcoin may serve as a hedge against inflation and the influx of fiat money influenced by global events.