Analytics firm Alphractal has expressed concern about recent Bitcoin market movements, noting increased leverage and changes in large holders' positions.
Current Market Overview
According to Alphractal's latest statement, large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly referred to as whales, began closing long positions and opening short positions after BTC briefly surpassed $87,000. Analysts noted that the Open Interest/Market Cap ratio is rising again, indicating that leverage in the market is increasing. Historically, such increases in leverage have preceded high volatility, potentially leading to mass liquidations.
Historical ROI and Its Decline
While Bitcoin remains a strong investment option, Alphractal noted that the days of astronomical returns are long gone. The firm provided a breakdown of Bitcoin’s Return on Investment (ROI) per cycle, showing a steady decline as the asset matures: 2009-2011: 4,830,000%, 2011-2015: 55,000%, 2015-2018: 8,500%, 2018-2022: 2,000%, 2022-2025: 560% (as of January 2025).
Future of Bitcoin: Analysts' View
Despite this downward trend, Bitcoin's performance still significantly outperforms traditional investment vehicles, such as stocks and mutual funds, which typically offer annualized returns ranging from 5% to 10% under favorable market conditions. According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is no longer a speculative 'lottery ticket,' but remains a valuable asset for wealth preservation and long-term growth.
Analysts warn that the changing behavior of large-scale Bitcoin holders could lead to significant price swings. However, Bitcoin remains an important tool for long-term investors.
