Research by Alphractal shows a rise in the 'On-Chain Confidence' metric for Bitcoin, potentially indicating the end of the current bull market.
On-Chain Confidence Metric
The 'On-Chain Confidence' metric aggregates key data points such as RHODL Ratio, Puell Multiple, MVRV, CVDD, RUPL/NUPL, and Realized Price. All components are normalized to provide a clearer visualization of overall network sentiment.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
The current rise in this confidence metric reflects growing profitability across the network. While it has reached levels comparable to those seen in early 2024 and early 2025, it still remains below the historical peaks observed during the euphoric surges of 2021 and 2017.
Analyst Expectations
Analysts caution that if this trend continues and confidence approaches the highs from previous cycles, it could indicate Bitcoin is entering the final leg of its bull market. This stage might last only a few more months, a familiar pattern from earlier boom cycles.
In conclusion, despite the rise in the confidence metric, it is essential to closely monitor on-chain activity to determine whether we are indeed approaching the end of Bitcoin's current rally.
