- Strength of Bullish Signals
- September: The Most Challenging Month
- Historical Data and Inflation Trends
Experts share their views on the current state and future of the cryptocurrency market, discussing recent price fluctuations and the impact of economic data.
Strength of Bullish Signals
Fahmi Almuttaqin, an analyst at the crypto exchange Reku, claims that bullish signals for the cryptocurrency market remain weak in the short term but emphasizes that the market can continue to rally in the medium term. On September 4, 2024, he commented on the recent downward trend, noting the ongoing decline of BTC and ETH. Data from CoinMarketCap as of September 3, 2024, shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropped by 6% over the past week, reaching $59,000 and Rp38.8 million respectively. SOL also fell by 14% to $135. By September 4, the situation worsened: BTC dropped another 4% to $56,553, ETH—4.41% to $2,396, and SOL—3.37% to $129.
September: The Most Challenging Month
Market attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for September 17-18, 2024. It is expected that the Fed may cut interest rates, which could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut stands at 59%, down from 70% a few days earlier. Analysts believe that September will be the most challenging month for the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has shown positive results in September only three times, which is fewer than in August.
Historical Data and Inflation Trends
Historical data suggests that September is typically a challenging month for the cryptocurrency market. In recent years, positive Bitcoin results in September were observed only three times: +2.35% in 2015, +6.04% in 2016, and +3.91% in 2023. Such data enhances expectations of September's difficulties. It should also be noted that the US inflation rate, measured by the PCE index, has decreased from 3.348% in August 2023 to 2.5% in July 2024. This decline may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy.
Experts anticipate a challenging September for the cryptocurrency market. The impact of U.S. economic data and upcoming Fed decisions may have significant repercussions for cryptocurrency price dynamics in the coming months.
