Bitcoin's short-term holders are experiencing losses similar to those in August 2024. The study of the MVRV ratio and realized price shows important market trends and reversal opportunities.
Trading Trends and Market Structure
As of March 2025, Bitcoin's price movements have mirrored past cycles, especially the downturn of August 2024. Many investors entered the market late, purchasing at inflated levels above 90,000 USD. This trend, along with the analysis of BTC’s supply age bands and MVRV metrics, provides valuable insights into the ongoing market structure. Understanding these indicators is crucial for traders navigating the delicate balance between bearish dominance and potential bullish reversals.
Bitcoin's Liquidity Implications
Further, BTC’s supply age bands, spanning 2012 to 2025, provide further clarity on market trends. The 5-10 year cohort peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, while the 1-3 month supply band reached 4 million BTC in 2024 during the rally to 100,000 USD. This distribution shift suggests long-term holders retained a strong grip on supply, while newer coins aged as the market matured. By early 2025, the 6-12 month bands stabilized at 3 million BTC.
Market Sentiment and Newcomer Behavior
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, combined with the STH Realized Price, provides insight into market sentiment and potential reversals. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV fluctuated between 0.5 and 2.5. New traders, often influenced by media hype and influencer-driven speculation, bought Bitcoin at 95,000 USD, disregarding MVRV warnings at 1.5. If MVRV reclaims 2.5 alongside increased buying volume, Bitcoin could retest 120,000 USD.
Short-term holders and new investors need to consider Bitcoin's historical patterns, monitor MVRV ratios, and stay alert to market signals to avoid losses.
