This article examines the influence of current geopolitical conflicts on Bitcoin's market and its interaction with global energy markets.
Geopolitical Risk and Bitcoin
Despite recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin remains resilient but could face a sharp correction if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Nic Puckrin warns that blocking this critical oil shipping route would lead to significant economic repercussions, as nearly 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait.
Puckrin noted that Bitcoin's short-term price action depends on the escalation of the conflict in the region. If Iran were to close the strait, this would lead to a spike in oil prices and a sharp decline in risk assets, with Bitcoin potentially absorbing the initial market shock while other assets remain frozen until Monday's trading.
Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint for global oil transit. According to Bloomberg, about 26% of global oil trade flows through it. U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics reveal that an average of 21 million barrels of oil transited through the strait daily in 2022, equivalent to 21% of global petroleum consumption. Energy analysts consider a blockade of the strait a worst-case scenario, as such an event could push oil prices significantly above $100 per barrel.
Long-term Prospects for Bitcoin
Bitcoin demonstrates complex relationships with traditional financial metrics. Research indicates that Bitcoin historically moves inversely to the US Dollar Index, though this correlation fluctuates. Despite a 9% decline in the US Dollar Index in 2025, Bitcoin dropped 6%, reflecting its growing correlation with stock markets rather than traditional safe-haven assets. Long-term Bitcoin holders continue accumulating assets despite global uncertainties.
The influence of geopolitical conflicts on Bitcoin and global energy flows remains significant. The current state of the region and potential changes in global politics could further affect price movements and volatility in cryptocurrency.
