History has shown that Bitcoin tends to peak significantly after surpassing the 2.4x mark from its 200-day Simple Moving Average. This pattern has been observed in previous market cycles, including in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
Historical Patterns in Bitcoin's Cycles
According to expert Ali Martinez and Glassnode, Bitcoin’s major cycle shifts and blow-off tops have always correlated with this important marker. When Bitcoin exceeds 2.4 times its 200-day SMA, it often precedes a downturn. This observation allows forecasts of potential resistance levels Bitcoin might face.
Current Market Situation
Bitcoin is trading at $104,318 as of writing. Recent price action remains bullish, with Bitcoin recovering from dips below $98k and consolidating in an ascending channel. The current price movement is characterized by an uptrend within a well-defined range.
Volume Analysis and Forecasts
The volume oscillator, which measures the percent change in trading volume, remains at -13.44%. This means that while Bitcoin is recovering, it is doing so with relatively less trading volume. Continued volume increase is necessary to aim for higher price objectives.
Given the current situation, Bitcoin is poised to continue its ascent to $184,600, which corresponds to 2.4x the 200-day SMA. However, success will rely on sufficient trading volume recovery and overcoming current resistance levels.
