Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to reach its euphoric stage based on realized market capitalization metrics. As expectations grow for new all-time highs by 2025, BTC trades above $100,000.
Current State of the Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin's realized market capitalization increased by 2.1 times from the cycle low, far from previous bull cycles' peaks. The BTC realized price hovers over $42,000, up from $20,000 in 2022. Many early adopters hold their positions, keeping the realized price lower. The BTC market is characterized by strategic long-term holding and reduced volatility, limiting panic selling.
Reduced Volatility in the Bitcoin Market
The current BTC cycle mirrors the 2015-2018 price movements, with slower ascents and smaller drawdowns. Leveraged trading has become more strategic. Funds stay with major coins rather than move to altcoins, preventing rapid liquidation. The current trend points to smaller drawdowns, usually under 25%.
Market Prospects Under Current Conditions
BTC's history has made it a widely accessible asset. New inflows are expected from corporate and governmental buyers. Retail buying remains slow despite reaccumulation. Current prices around $100,000 are viewed as cash-out opportunities, particularly for older whales. However, consensus on BTC's potential top within this range is lacking.
Despite high growth expectations, BTC remains in a consolidation stage. Short-term rally attempts are possible, but focus will be on testing the $120,000 level in the coming months.
