1. The Athey-Mitchnick Valuation Model
2. Key Assumptions and Projections
3. The Virtuous Cycle and Price Dynamics

XRP is trading at $0.5248, and many believe its price should be much higher. XRP has faced challenges in recent market cycles, including regulatory hurdles such as the recently concluded legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These factors have led to speculation about potential price suppression, prompting researchers to develop models that attempt to determine XRP’s value in the absence of such constraints.

The Athey-Mitchnick Valuation Model

A valuation model developed by Susan Athey and Robert Mitchnick in 2018 suggests that XRP’s fair market value could be significantly higher than its current trading price. This model, which takes into account XRP’s dual role, estimates a potential value of $4,813. The Athey-Mitchnick model stands out as one of the earliest publicly available attempts to quantify XRP’s potential worth. It bases its projections on two primary factors: XRP’s utility in facilitating cross-border payments and its appeal as a store of value. The model posits that by 2030, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could process 10% of global transactions. Additionally, it assumes that 10% of global assets might transition to XRP, contributing to a substantial increase in its value.

Key Assumptions and Projections

In their calculations, Athey and Mitchnick estimate that daily transaction volumes using XRP could reach $700 billion by 2030. They also project that the demand for XRP as a store of value might amount to $53 trillion. The model assumes a circulating supply of 56 billion XRP tokens (excluding the XRP locked up in escrow) and applies a 10% discount rate which accounts for future value.

The Virtuous Cycle and Price Dynamics

A crucial aspect of the Athey-Mitchnick model is its consideration of what they term a “virtuous cycle.” This concept suggests that as XRP adoption increases for payment purposes, its price increases. Consequently, more users could hold XRP as a long-term investment, reducing the available supply for transactions. This dynamic is expected to create upward pressure on the price, driven by transactional and store-of-value demand. This cycle explains the reason the community is excited about XRP’s potential adoption by the BRICS bloc for cross-border payments. This adoption would significantly boost adoption, beginning the virtuous cycle and potentially bringing XRP closer to its true value proposed by this model. While the model provides an intriguing perspective on XRP’s potential value, it’s important to note its limitations. The projections do not account for certain factors, and exclude certain markets such as real estate and derivatives, suggesting that the actual fair value could be higher if these factors were incorporated.

The Athey-Mitchnick model offers an interesting perspective on XRP's potential value and explains how increased adoption could influence its price. It is important to take the model's limitations into account and conduct further research to make informed decisions.