Vetle Lunde from the research company K33 Research recently presented an analytical report in which he highlights the trends of the cryptocurrency market for January 2024. Special attention in the report is given to the significant increase in annual premiums for futures contracts on CME, which reached 50%. According to Lunde, such growth is due to the expectation of a decision on the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin.
The analyst emphasizes that traders' interest in this issue will remain until the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its chairman Gary Gensler make a final decision. Lunde presents three possible scenarios for the development of events, believing that the probability of rejection of applications for spot BTC ETFs in January 2024 is only 5%.
According to Lunde, after the SEC's failure in the legal process with Grayscale and regular meetings with ETF organizers, everything points to the likely approval of the applications. However, if applications for spot BTC ETFs are rejected, this could lead to a market crash and a significant drop in the value of Bitcoin, although such an outcome seems unlikely.
Lunde also notes that there is a 75% chance of ETF approval, which could lead to a situation where the news of the SEC's decision will be actively used in trading. He also points to the growth of premiums in the derivatives market after a three-month rise in the value of Bitcoin, indicating that much of the potential increase in the value of Bitcoin is already accounted for in its current price, and many traders may start to fix profits.
The third scenario described by Lunde involves a significant influx of investment into the market following the approval of ETFs. He believes that American ETFs should attract at least 50,000 BTC (approximately $2.3 billion) in January to neutralize seller pressure. This does not include potential transfers of funds from futures ETFs to spot ones. Lunde is confident that the maximum value of Bitcoin will be reached on the day the SEC's decision is announced, regardless of its content.
