According to Glassnode analysts, purchasing cryptocurrency through an ETF has a greater impact on the supply and demand of Bitcoin in the market than halving. Although the upcoming April halving could trigger a rise in the price of Bitcoin, the actions of US ETFs and long-term coin holders may play the most significant role.

Historically, Bitcoin halving has been associated with an increase in its price. Around 2012, Bitcoin was up about 8,000% in the year following the halving, and in 2016, it was up nearly 1,000%. After the last halving in May 2020, a bull market followed, reaching a new all-time high price of about $69 thousand in November 2021.

Halving will reduce the rate at which new coins are released, which could cause a supply shortage in the market and lead to higher prices. However, the current market scenario is different from the historical experience. Bitcoin supply to the market is becoming less significant compared to the growing demand from Bitcoin ETFs.

According to experts, miners bring about 900 BTC to the market every day, and after halving this number should drop to about 450 BTC. However, the scale of purchases through ETFs significantly exceeds miners' daily production, which may mean that the halving will not necessarily lead to a sharp rise in price.

Analysts say the supply shortage typically expected around the halving may already be priced into Bitcoin due to massive ETF buying. They also note that the actions of long-term Bitcoin holders have a significant impact on the market and its liquidity.

Specialists use the Long-Term Holder Market Inflation Rate metric, which reflects the dynamics of accumulation or spending of bitcoins by long-term holders. They concluded that in the current cycle, Bitcoin has completed about a third of its standard distribution cycle.

Analysts also note that investors often include optimistic forecasts in the price of Bitcoin long before the event, which can lead to a price correction. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor the activity of long-term holders to understand market sentiment.