Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new high for the year at $44,700. This maximum was seen above an important long-term resistance zone, but later the price dropped below this level.

Bitcoin has overcome long-term resistance on the weekly chart, showing rapid growth since mid-October. For the past eight consecutive weeks, the price has risen, reaching a new annual high of $44,700 last week. This maximum was above the critical horizontal zone and the Fibonacci level.

Despite closing the week above this important area, the Bitcoin price has dropped significantly this week, which may threaten the stability of the previous breakthrough.

The RSI relative strength index on the weekly chart is in the overbought zone, although it has declined slightly in recent weeks, it is still trading above the 70 level, which is considered the overbought limit.

Cryptocurrency traders and analysts on the X platform positively assess the short-term trend of Bitcoin. There is an active interest in the spot market, while the situation in the perpetual futures market remains unchanged. The premium on perpetual futures has also decreased. This may indicate that spot investors see an opportunity and actively take advantage of the price reduction.

Based on Elliott's wave analysis, Bitcoin may be approaching the top of the third wave within a five-wave bullish structure. The third wave is considered extended, and its subwaves are displayed in black on the chart. The estimated target for the top of the third wave is $47,600, which is 15% higher than the current price. The length of the fifth subwave was calculated based on the combined length of the first and third subwaves.

The next stage may be a corrective fourth wave, which may be confirmed by bearish signals on the RSI indicator. Closing the price below the bullish breakout level around $38,000 may indicate the beginning of this fourth wave, in which case BTC may lose about 20% of its value and reach the nearest support at $33,000.