Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi presented his "power law" model for predicting the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which claims that by 2045 each individual BTC will be worth $10 million.
A power law is a mathematical relation where one value is proportional to a fixed power of another value. This law is widespread in nature, including the frequency of earthquakes and the dynamics of the stock market.
Santostasi first introduced his model to the r/Bitcoin community in 2018. However, in January of this year, she attracted attention again after financial blogger Andrei Jeyh discussed her in his video for his 2.3 million subscribers.
According to the model, bitcoin could peak at $210,000 in January 2026 and then drop to $60,000.
In a conversation on March 2 with mathematician and bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi noted that the power model represents a more understandable and predictable picture of the behavior of the bitcoin price over long periods of time.
"The first conclusions from my conversation with Giovanni Santostasi for 90 minutes. This graph makes you think. Some aspects of the power law seem incomprehensible at first. We expect that over the next 15 years, the price of Bitcoin will grow not by 2, but by 64 times!" wrote Kruger on March 2, 2024.
However, most of the short-term bitcoin price charts used in the mainstream media present a "disorderly" and inaccurate view of bitcoin's price movement.
Santostasi noted that unlike the widely criticized stock-to-flow model, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential. This means that the price of bitcoin should not constantly rise over time, and within this model, it is still possible to take into account the significant price fluctuations that have been observed recently.
In a subsequent post on X dated March 3, Kruger presented further mathematical modeling of the power law for bitcoin, which predicts reaching a price of $100,000 over the next two years.
Modeling of Kruger's power law predicts that by 2045, the price of bitcoin will reach $10 million. Kruger also added that if bitcoin follows the power model, its market capitalization will exceed the market capitalization of gold by 2033, at which point bitcoin will be worth $1 million per token.
Despite Santostasi and Kruger's confidence in the power model, critics point out that any mathematical model may contain errors and not take into account random events that can greatly affect the price.
