Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts that the crypto market will experience steady growth in 2026 as traditional four-year halving cycles lose significance.
Traditional Halving Cycles Losing Influence
Hougan emphasizes that traditional events, such as Bitcoin halving, are losing their significance. "We're no longer playing by the same rules," he stated. "The influences that fueled the last cycles, such as halving and retail speculation, are being overshadowed by more powerful, longer-term tendencies."
Institutional Capital Drives New Market Structure
The macroeconomic environment has shifted with declining interest rates, improving regulation, and substantial institutional capital allocation to crypto assets. "These are multi-year flows," Hougan emphasized. "Not fast money." Institutional involvement represents a structural change from previous cycles primarily driven by retail speculation.
Regulatory Progress and Infrastructure Investment
He also cited increasing regulatory transparency, particularly the July 2025 passage of the GENIUS Act, and the influx of Wall Street investment into crypto infrastructure. "Wall Street is now building on crypto. That's a sea change," he added. However, a risk remains: the emergence of crypto treasury firms scaling with little regulation. "If that falls apart, it might be this cycle's blow-up," he stated.
Hougan forecasts 2026 to be a time of "sustained, steady boom," not a blow-off top. He stresses that current changes might benefit long-term investors rather than short-term speculators.
