- Bitcoin's Trend Slowing Down Since June
- Optimistic On-Chain Metrics
- Market Timing and the Puell Multiple
Since early June, Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a gradual downtrend, though on-chain metrics suggest the cycle top might be a year away.
Bitcoin's Trend Slowing Down Since June
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a slow downtrend since early June, marked by lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. Despite this, CryptoQuant’s Founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, maintains that Bitcoin is still mid-cycle. He also pointed out that BTC spot volume dominance on Coinbase has returned to early 2024 levels, before the approval of the spot ETF. He believes this is not a bullish development and that an increase in U.S. investors is necessary for Bitcoin to reach new highs.
Optimistic On-Chain Metrics
On-chain metrics were used to determine the current stage of Bitcoin’s cycle. The results were promising. The UTXO age bands displayed the distribution of realized cap across different UTXO age bands. The chart represents the ratio of the realized cap of spent UTXOs. The 3-month to 2-year UTXO ages show sharper peaks and valleys at different points in the cycle. As the market tops, these age bands drop sharply, forming bottoms roughly around the market top. The subsequent downtrend sees them climb higher, indicating more holders re-entering the Bitcoin market as buyers.
Market Timing and the Puell Multiple
The Puell multiple helps identify market tops and increased selling pressure from miners. Similar to the UTXO bands, it also forms peaks between cycles, signaling miners taking profits before the halving to remain in business. The most recent peak happened in March 2024, further supporting the notion that Bitcoin is only halfway through its current cycle.
The review of current trends and on-chain metrics indicates that Bitcoin is mid-cycle, with the cycle top expected in about a year. Increasing the number of U.S. investors is crucial for future growth.
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