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Analysis of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs

May 31, 2024

Demand for spot Ethereum ETFs is expected to be significantly lower than that for spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to JPMorgan. While Ether ETFs could enter the market around late June upon approval of S-1 filings by the US securities regulator, JPMorgan analysts anticipate a negative initial market response. Unlike spot Bitcoin ETFs, which rapidly accumulated assets, Ether ETFs are projected to attract between $1 billion and $3 billion by 2024, assuming they commence trading before the year concludes. JPMorgan attributes this comparatively subdued interest in Ether ETFs to the exclusion of staking yields, mandated by the US SEC, making them less appealing to investors who favor platforms offering staking rewards in ETH.

JPMorgan further elaborates that Bitcoin's established precedence in the market and the quadrennial halving event could sway investor preferences towards Bitcoin over Ether. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that Ethereum ETFs may capture up to 20% of the Bitcoin ETF market, representing a substantial achievement considering the expectations surrounding Ether spot ETFs. He likens Ether ETFs to silver in the precious metals domain, highlighting Bitcoin ETFs as gold and indicating silver ETFs holding a mere 15% market share.

Balchunas highlights the tendency of many investors to limit their crypto and precious metals allocations to Bitcoin and gold, potentially diminishing the appeal of Ether ETFs. Despite this, JPMorgan anticipates a significant rise in net inflows if the US Congress officially recognizes ETH as a commodity.

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