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Analysis of Market Events Impacting Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

Jun 4, 2024

Overview

This week is marked by crucial upcoming events that could have an impact on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The week started with Bitcoin exceeding the $70k threshold, signaling potential shifts in the market.

Greeks.live, a source for economic insights, highlighted significant economic events that may influence Bitcoin and the crypto markets. In a recent post on X, Greeks.live provided a preview of key financial events for the week. One standout event is the release of Friday’s unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data.

The analysis by Greeks.live emphasizes the interconnectedness of the macro market with the crypto sphere, underscoring the importance of monitoring market movements. According to the report, the approval of the ETH ETF is anticipated by the end of the month, urging investors to stay informed about relevant updates.

Currently, the Implied Volatility (IV) is decreasing rapidly, leading to lower expected volatility. However, the news of ETH ETs trading commencement is predicted to drive up the price of ETH significantly once revealed.

Highlights of the Current Week

June 5

  • US ADP Employment data for May
  • Interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada
  • FTX Creditors Committee assessing reorganization plan and disclosure statement

June 6

  • Eurozone ECB main refinancing date
  • US initial jobless claims update

June 7

  • Release of US unemployment rate for May
  • Publication of US non-farm payrolls, quarterly adjusted for May

Market Analysis

Greeks.live also discussed the impact of Ethereum ETFs on market volatility, noting a significant decline in volatility with ETH leading the crypto market. The report mentions low volatility expectations and decreasing IVs across major terms, with anticipation for increased ETH IV by the ETF approval deadline at the end of June.

In the short term, investors are advised to consider lower IV terms and prices when purchasing call options, as they remain cost-effective. The report highlights the activity of Bitfinex spot large investors and the prevalence of high-interest rate market orders.

Regarding Bitcoin, positive price forecasts dominate, with expectations of a substantial price surge based on a new S2F model presented by PlanB. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading around $69k.

Market Trends

Bitcoin commenced the week by surpassing the significant $70k milestone on June 3.

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