Alex Thorn, head research analyst at Galaxy, believes that a Donald Trump victory in the US elections could have a more positive impact on altcoins than Bitcoin. Thorn expressed his view in a post on the platform X, commenting on the weakness of the ETH/BTC ratio.
Altcoins and Political Influence
The ETHBTC ratio describes the value of ETH to BTC, and it fell to 0.0399 on September 15, its lowest level since April 2021. With that decline, the ETHBTC ratio has declined 53% since then and looks set for further decline, but some people believe that a Trump win could boost ETH. Thorn appears to share a similar view. He said: > "I do think a trump victory is better for alts than BTC on a relative basis, mostly because easing on the regulatory front helps alts more than BTC."
Ongoing Struggles of Altcoins
Thorn’s comments about the potential impact of Trump’s win on altcoins are not surprising, given their struggles over the past few months. Major cap altcoins, including Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA), performed worse than Bitcoin in 2024. These struggles have been due to regulatory pressure, reduced activity on several blockchain networks, and prevailing bearish market sentiments. However, analysts believe things could worsen if there is no rally. Will Clemente, founder of Reflexity Research, believes that altcoins could attract less funds from institutional investors if there is no rally. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also shared a similar view, saying on his YouTube channel that altcoins will fall further this year and capitulate against Bitcoin due to the low net global liquidity. He said: > "What I’ve said could be the ultimate outcome: alt/Bitcoin pairs capitulating before the end of the year. So I think there is a case to be made that alt/Bitcoin pairs will simply get rejected at 0.4, they could still wick a little bit above it, but I ultimately think they will get rejected and they will come back down to the range lows before the end of the year."
Bitcoin Prospects if Trump Wins
Most institutional analysts have focused on the potential impact of Trump’s victory on Bitcoin, with varying predictions of how high the flagship asset could go depending on who wins the US presidential election. Standard Chartered has an optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, with the bank predicting that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by the end of 2024, regardless of who wins the 2024 elections. Analysts at the bank predict that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 if Trump wins the election or $75,000 if Kamala Harris wins. They attribute the price divergence to the relaxed regulations that will happen under Trump. Still, the bank expects regulatory progress for the crypto industry regardless of who wins the election, only that it might be slower under Harris. Analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein are less optimistic about the impact of a Trump win, saying that BTC could reach $90,000 in 2024 if the former president wins. As for Harris, the analysts are pessimistic, noting that BTC will likely fall below $50,000 and might even go as low as $30,000 if she wins the election. Still, many believe the potential impact of a Trump win on crypto prices might be exaggerated, noting that the former president has a track record of breaking his political promises. Polymarket data shows that Harris’s chance of winning the election is 50%, 1% higher than Trump’s.
While predictions about the future of the crypto market and the impact of Trump’s potential US election victory vary, analysts agree that the chosen political course will significantly affect the timeline for these projections.
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