Bitcoin [BTC] has experienced a significant price increase over the past 30 days, following two months of extreme volatility.
Bitcoin's Monthly Price Increase
After reaching a high of $70,016 in July, BTC saw a major decline, even dropping to a local low of $49,000. However, in the wake of the recent Fed rate cuts, BTC has made considerable gains. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,839, marking a 10.38% increase on the monthly charts, and a 4.47% increase in the past 24 hours.
Predicting a Continued Rally
This recent surge has sparked interest in the crypto community, leading to speculation about a possible sustained long-term rally. Cryptoquant analyst Burak Kesmeci is among those predicting continued growth, based on the MVRV metric. Kesmeci suggests that the Bitcoin MVRV Metric is now indicating a bullish signal, with the MVRV pricing above its SMA 365. Historical analysis of the relationship between the MVRV and the 365-day moving average shows that BTC typically records a rally after the MVRV rises above SMA 365. At the time of reporting, the MVRV was at 2.04, sitting above its SMA 365 at 2.02. Kesmeci interprets this as a strong bullish signal, suggesting that the market is in favour of the bulls.
Other Indicators
While Kesmeci’s metric provides a positive outlook, other fundamentals also offer insight. For example, Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply ratio has been decreasing over the past week, indicating a bullish signal as investors hold their assets in cold wallets rather than on exchanges. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s fund flow ratio has been increasing over the past week, indicating greater funds inflows into BTC, and suggesting growing confidence among investors. Finally, Bitcoin’s Short-term holder SOPR has also been rising over the past week. A rising short-term SOPR during an uptrend indicates a strong market, suggesting the uptrend is likely to continue.
In conclusion, BTC is experiencing positive market sentiment and increasing investor favourability. If these market conditions persist, BTC may attempt to breach the $68,240 resistance level.
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