The U.S. Federal Reserve may initiate a reduction in key interest rates as early as September 2025, according to forecasts from several major banks. This anticipated shift could have a significant impact on financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector.
Expectations of Rate Cuts by Major Banks
Several major U.S. financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, expect the Federal Reserve to initiate its first interest rate cut in September. They project a cycle of three successive cuts totaling 75 basis points by the end of the year, driven by the need to stimulate private investment amid slowing economic activity.
Cautious Approach from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley
In contrast to the more optimistic forecasts, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley adopt a considerably more cautious stance regarding interest rate developments. JPMorgan anticipates a single 25 basis point cut in December, while Morgan Stanley does not expect any cuts this year due to ongoing uncertainty about the state of the economy and inflation risks.
Impact on the Crypto Market and Economic Activity
A rate cut could favor investments in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. Lower rates facilitate credit access, encouraging investment in speculative assets. However, the lack of consensus on rate cut scenarios complicates predictions about future movements in the crypto market.
Expectations of potential rate cuts by the Fed provide a reason for optimism in financial markets. However, the nature of the macroeconomic situation and divergent forecasts from financial institutions highlight the uncertainty investors face.
