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Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Impact and Market Trends Survey

May 31, 2024

On May 31, a significant amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, encompassing 69,000 Bitcoin options valued at $4.7 billion and 920,000 Ether options valued at $3.5 billion. This expiry holds the potential to introduce notable volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Derbit data indicated a put/call ratio of 0.61 for expired Bitcoin options, suggesting a prevalence of long contract expirations over short contracts. Conversely, Ether options exhibited a put/call ratio of 0.46.

The put/call ratio is a pivotal technical indicator reflecting trader market sentiment, with values below 0.7 implying strong bullish sentiment and values above 1 indicating strong bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin and Ethereum's Max pain levels were identified at $66,000 and $3,300, respectively. Both cryptocurrencies are presently trading above these thresholds. Noteworthy open interest is visible in long positions across varying strike prices, including $70,000, $75,000, $80,000, and even $100,000.

Many traders have established long positions targeting a Bitcoin price of $100,000, with $886 million in open interest at this level. The cumulative notional value of all outstanding Bitcoin options contracts totals $19 billion.

The recent approval of the spot ETH ETF by the SEC caused a 20% surge in ETH prices in May. However, the delay in the actual trading listing post-approval led to a stagnant market trend.

Following the ETF approval, both ETH and BTC have struggled to surpass key price levels, indicating a bearish market direction. The ongoing correction phase follows a bullish trend from preceding weeks.

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