Bitcoin finds itself at an important crossroads, with critical support levels and signals of weakening fundamentals that may impact its near future.
Critical Support Levels for BTC
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding on to the MVRV +1.0σ band at $102,044, a significant support zone. A breach of this level could trigger a sharp drop toward the MVRV mean at $82,570. This level has acted as a bounce point during past retracements, making it an important line for the bulls.
Market Overheating and NVT Metrics
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has surged by 83.82%, reaching 56.81. This increase suggests that BTC’s market cap is growing faster than its transaction volume, potentially signaling overvaluation. Historically, similar NVT spikes have coincided with local market tops or short-term corrections.
Debate on Bitcoin's Scarcity
The Stock-to-Flow ratio has declined by 12.5%, currently reading 795.16K. This decrease challenges BTC’s long-standing scarcity narrative that has often supported bullish long-term valuations. A falling stock-to-flow value suggests that BTC’s perceived scarcity may no longer be enough to sustain high prices.
Bitcoin is at a critical junction, as both on-chain metrics and technical indicators reflect growing bearish pressure. The $101K support remains the final stronghold for bulls.
