For over a decade, Bitcoin's cycles have followed a predictable pattern based on halvings. However, with market changes, the future of this cycle is in question.
Bitcoin's Classic Cycle
The Bitcoin cycle revolved around one key event: the halving. Approximately every four years, mining rewards were cut in half, limiting new supply. This scarcity often triggered price rallies post-halving, leading to an all-time high (ATH) about 12–18 months later. However, in 2024, Bitcoin hit a record high above $73,000 before the halving, prompting some analysts to declare the old script dead.
Reasons for the Possible End of the Cycle
One turning point was the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which opened new avenues for institutional exposure. More public companies are adding Bitcoin to their treasuries, and long-term holders are accumulating assets at record levels. Supportive regulation and decreasing interest rate expectations also contribute to stability. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan states that the key forces of the four-year cycle are now weaker.
Defenders of the Former Bitcoin Cycle
However, not all experts agree that the cycle is over. Some analysts argue that halvings are hard-coded into Bitcoin and cannot be 'canceled.' They believe that the influence of ETFs and institutional investments actually helps maintain the cycle. Others warn against assuming that smooth growth is here to stay, as market shocks and regulatory changes could still lead to steep corrections.
Therefore, while some factors may suggest the conclusion of Bitcoin's traditional cycle, a review of the driving forces and market conditions indicates rapid changes are taking place. Future movements in the market require careful monitoring of not only halvings but also other factors.
