Bitcoin, reaching a record high above $124,000, faced a sharp decline of over 13.75%. This event has sparked discussions among analysts regarding a potential market reversal and manipulations.
Technical Significance of the Drop
In the last week of August, Bitcoin registered a sharp drop of over 13.75% from its historic peak, breaking a multi-year uptrend. This technical break has revived concerns about a possible market reversal among many investors, especially as the RSI is also under pressure. Historically, the simultaneous loss of parabolic support and RSI has preceded Bitcoin's worst corrections.
- In 2013, Bitcoin fell from $1,150 to $150 (-85%) after the simultaneous loss of parabolic and RSI supports; - In 2017, a similar dynamic led to a drop from $20,000 to $3,100 (-84%); - In 2021, the bubble burst resulted in a fall from $69,000 to $15,500 (-77%).
Analysts warn that if the RSI also breaks its support, Bitcoin could plunge towards $80,000.
Possible Market Manipulation
Several leading analysts believe this drop could be a trap. According to BitBull, the current decline may be linked to market manipulation aimed at scaring investors. He stated: *"Even a wick of capitulation below $100,000 aligns with Bitcoin's historical behavior, which consists of ejecting weak hands before a strong rebound".*
This viewpoint is also supported by analyst SuperBro, who referred to the Pi Cycle Top model, known for its accuracy in identifying peaks in bull markets. He noted: *"No Pi Cycle crossover has yet occurred, indicating the cycle peak has not yet been reached".* In his view, Bitcoin could potentially rise to $280,000 before entering a true reversal.
Factors Influencing the Market
Although Pi Cycle signals have not yet been confirmed, this does not exclude the possibility of intermediate corrections. The current market structure is also influenced by macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical factors that are not reflected in technical models. If the RSI breaks its support line, a new bearish sequence could quickly be triggered, invalidating the most optimistic short-term scenarios. Conversely, a quick rebound above $114,000, marked by several traders as critical, could invalidate this false breakout and restore BTC's long-term uptrend.
The situation in the Bitcoin market raises many questions and uncertainties. Current data and analytic assumptions indicate that investors should exercise caution and closely monitor indicators, as potential manipulations and corrections could significantly impact future price movements.
