1. Reasons for Bitcoin's Rise and Fall
2. QCP Analysts' Commentary
3. Future Prospects

Bitcoin (BTC) quickly surpassed $60,000 due to delayed US payroll data but then fell back. As of writing, stock markets are positive, the dollar index (DXY) is weak, and gold is strong. However, Bitcoin remains weak. Those who opened short positions at higher levels profited again.

Reasons for Bitcoin's Rise and Fall

There was a slight drop because the rumors were justified, and US officials revised employment growth downward as expected. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two main tasks: price stability and maintaining employment at a certain level. Given the highest inflation in 40 years, the task of price stability has become a priority. Fed Chairman Powell and his team continued to pressure the employment market, saying that lowering interest rates could cause inflation to rise again. Today’s result was a downward revision of the Non-Farm Payroll estimate announced for March by 818,000 (or 0.5%) as of March 2024. Despite this move, which means the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates, the BTC price drop is hard to fully explain. The market expects a 100bp rate cut this year. A 50bp cut is priced in for the November meeting. There are also expectations for two 25bp cuts.

QCP Analysts' Commentary

Analysts also mentioned the rumors about the downward revision of payroll estimates and published their market evaluation before the data arrived. You can check the graph and the predictions below to see the success of the evaluation.

Future Prospects

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. Half of this reduction may occur at the November meeting, with two further 25 basis point cuts potentially following later. This decision will impact not only traditional financial markets but also cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price will continue to fluctuate depending on news regarding macroeconomic indicators and the decisions of the US Federal Reserve. How events will unfold in financial markets remains to be seen, but for now, we monitor the ongoing changes.