Recent analysis by Glassnode confirms that Bitcoin continues to follow its established four-year cycle despite expectations of market changes.
Indicators of a Market Cooldown
Glassnode points to several key signs affecting Bitcoin (BTC). Notably, long-term holders—those retaining Bitcoin for over 155 days—are engaging in profit-taking at levels similar to past peak phases, signaling a market nearing the end of its cycle. Additionally, capital inflows into Bitcoin show signs of weakening momentum, with approximately $975 million in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reported over the last four trading days, indicating diminishing demand.
Diverging Opinions on the 4-Year Cycle’s Future
While Glassnode advocates that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle persists, some industry leaders believe changing market dynamics could mark the end of this pattern. Publicly traded companies and institutional treasuries now hold close to one million Bitcoin, representing over $112 billion in assets, which could fundamentally alter market cycles. Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has declared the traditional Bitcoin cycle as ‘dead,’ anticipating an upward market year in 2026 instead. He suggests that the relevance of halving events diminishes over time, while macroeconomic factors such as interest rates become more influential.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
As per CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin’s price has fallen approximately 8.3% from its peak of $124,128 on August 14 to around $113,940 at the time of this report. Opinions from experts vary, but some, like veteran crypto analyst Rekt Capital, support the notion that Bitcoin may still adhere to its halving pattern, potentially hitting a peak in October 2025, around 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
Glassnode's insights suggest investors should pay attention to October as a crucial month for Bitcoin while acknowledging evolving perspectives on long-term cycles in the crypto market.
