In September, traders on the derivatives markets are betting on a rise in Bitcoin's price amid macroeconomic uncertainty and characteristic seasonal patterns.
Current State of Bitcoin in the Market
Bitcoin has dropped 3.3% in the last month but bounced back roughly 3% in the past two days to slightly above $110K. At the time of publication, on-chain data shows Bitcoin trading at around $110,630, with a 7.31% increase in trading volume in the last 24 hours to $72.2 billion.
September Seasonality and Its Impact
On-chain data revealed that Bitcoin has had flat cumulative volume deltas, with a noticeable surge in passive bids at a 10% order book depth. The increase in open interest in perpetuals by 2.35% to $30 billion over the past two days indicates that traders are starting to position ahead of economic data releases. However, September's historical bearish seasonality may lead to price declines.
Trader Expectations and the Fed's Influence
Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervie, noted that September's historical seasonality is causing investors to reassess their positions. The upcoming Non-farm Payrolls report is expected to determine immediate-term direction for Bitcoin. Dawson believes that a strong jobs report would mitigate September's negative effects. Additionally, markets anticipate the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting.
While September's seasonality and macroeconomic factors raise concerns among traders, expectations for Bitcoin's growth this month remain high.
