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Bitcoin Halving: Impacts and Expectations

Mar 30, 2024

The upcoming Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 19, 2024, at approximately 16:30 Turkey time (UTC+3). As per Hashrate Index, the event may lead to significant impacts on the Bitcoin's hashrate, depending on the performance of BTC price.

Hashrate Index predicts that 3-7% of Bitcoin hashrate may be inactive after halving if the current price of Bitcoin remains stable or increases moderately. The end-of-year hashrate value for Bitcoin is anticipated to fall between 639-674 EH/s.

However, a drop in Bitcoin's price to around $48,000 could result in around 16% of Bitcoin hashrate going offline.

An anomaly is expected in this halving compared to previous ones due to the ongoing Bitcoin bull market and transaction fee activity. Many miners have found ways to sustain their operations after the block reward reduces to 3,125 BTC.

Analysts suggest that if the price of Bitcoin remains steady or rises, only a small portion of the hashrate may become inactive. The hashrate is projected to increase gradually over the next year. Mining difficulty's slow but steady rise, combined with compressed margins, will restrict the amount of profitable hashrate.

While the halving may not severely disrupt miners as anticipated, profit margins are likely to be slim post-event.

To ensure mining operations remain profitable, a significant increase in BTC price is necessary, considering the production cost of BTC.

Historically, halvings have triggered Bitcoin bull markets. With the ongoing bull market and the potential approval of ETFs, BTC is expected to enter a strong bull market by mid-2025.

*This information does not constitute investment advice.

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