Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested an "exponential decay" pattern indicating that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle peak at the $70,000 mark. However, various other predictions and models indicate that the cryptocurrency could potentially hit $210,000 before the current bull run ends.
On April 27, Peter Brandt shared his theory, proposing that Bitcoin's bull market cycles display an "exponential decay" pattern, where each cycle's peak price is approximately 20% of the previous cycle's peak. Brandt expressed that 80% of the exponential energy of each bull market cycle has been diminished due to this pattern.
According to Brandt's calculations, the current cycle could only see a 4.5x increase from its low of about $15,500, suggesting a cycle top around $70,000, a level that Bitcoin already attained in March when prices reached $73,000.
However, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, Giovanni Santostasi, contradicted the exponential decay theory with his own model based on long-term power law behavior. Santostasi argued that there isn't enough significant data for statistical analysis and predicted a cycle peak of around $210,000 by December 2025 based on the extrapolated figures from the genesis block.
Various other analysts and experts have also made predictions regarding Bitcoin's peak this cycle. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal estimated a price of around $120,000 by the next halving in 2028, while Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, anticipates a potential cycle top of $180,000.
Fidelity Digital Assets updated its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin on April 22, mentioning that it is "no longer cheap." At the moment, BTC is trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March based on CoinGecko data.
