Currently, Bitcoin is showing price fluctuations, facing potential risks in the market. This analysis will consider significant levels and risks identified based on statistics.
Bitcoin and Current Price Level
On Wednesday, Bitcoin remains in a ranging environment after a brief retest of demand between $112,000 and $113,000. At this moment, BTC is attempting to break above the descending resistance trendline, which could lead to a rally towards $115,700.
Hidden Risks at $105,000
Analyst CryptoMe points out a potential hidden risk zone for Bitcoin around the $105,000 level, which is becoming increasingly significant across multiple onchain metrics.
- The UTXO Cost Basis Histogram reveals a significant wall at $105,644, indicating high onchain accumulation or realization at this price level. - 1-3 Month Holder realized price also hovers near $106,000. - Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price stands closely at $105,350.
The data indicates a potentially bearish setup in the short term, although the analyst maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin over the medium to long term.
High Open Interest and Risks for BTC
According to Hyblock Capital, Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) remains elevated at $79 billion, suggesting that speculation in the futures market hasn’t fully reset. This keeps the market fragile, especially with BTC price undergoing a correction from its all-time high of $123,000.
Historically, high open interest coupled with the Fear & Greed Index in 'Extreme Greed' territory has preceded local tops and corrections. For instance, this pattern seen on July 16 led to BTC's decline from $120,000 to $112,000. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. warns that any sudden negative catalyst could trigger a cascade of long liquidations.
The analysis of current metrics in the Bitcoin market reveals several risks, particularly in terms of hidden levels and open interest. The success of short-term positions may depend on reactions to key price levels.
