Bitcoin demonstrates significant growth in September, despite seasonality, alongside an interesting analysis of market structures and participant behavior.
Current Situation in the Bitcoin Market
In September, Bitcoin rose nearly 6%, despite its traditional bearish seasonality. The asset reached a crucial supply zone between $115,600 and $117,300. A close above $117,300 could signal a possible movement towards new highs.
With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and expectations of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is undergoing a slight correction on Monday, dipping below $114,500. This dip may present a favorable buying opportunity.
Key Support Levels
Technical analysis identifies the critical retest zone between $111,000 and $113,000, mirroring the structure seen in Q2. In June, Bitcoin surged from sub-$100,000 lows to $109,000, consolidating just below the $110,000 resistance. If the current uptrend is to remain intact, Bitcoin should hold in the $111,000–$113,000 range to confirm the potential for another structural breakout.
Investor Behavior Analysis
According to the URPD metric, 5.5% of BTC supply is clustered between $110,000 and $113,000, highlighting active accumulation in recent weeks. It became evident that large investors (holders) have reduced their positions by 715,000 BTC, while mid-sized investment groups have been active, increasing their BTC holdings by nearly 1 million, indicating new participants entering the market.
The observed market behavior and participants indicate possible support levels and growing interest from new investors in Bitcoin, which may create favorable conditions for further growth.
