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Bitcoin can quickly reach $64,000 on Fed rate cut

Sep 18, 2024
  1. Bitcoin growth potential
  2. Onchain supply data
  3. Seasonal trends and future forecasts

Bitcoin could quickly reach $64,000 if the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, according to the latest monthly report from Capriole Investments on September 17.

Bitcoin growth potential

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards believes that Bitcoin could significantly benefit from macroeconomic changes in the fourth quarter. Currently, BTC/USD is poised for growth if the Fed cuts rates at their scheduled meeting on September 18.

“This Hawkish regime also coincided with Bitcoin’s collapse from $60K to $15K. We are now at the start of the exact opposite regime.”None

Onchain supply data

The report dismisses concerns over shifting Bitcoin supply trends, arguing that new phenomena like U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have skewed the perception of onchain metrics. Edwards believes that the current capital redistribution and supply adjustment do not indicate significant long-term holder selling.

“This means that any onchain metrics with ‘long-term holder’ data, or ‘supply last active more than XX months/years’ cannot be trusted in 2024.”None

Seasonal trends and future forecasts

Edwards also points out that the fourth quarter is traditionally the best for Bitcoin, supported by its historical performance. Combined with the expected easing of Fed policy, this could create favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s price growth.

“What lies ahead? Seasonally we have the best two quarters just 2 weeks away from us, which are also within the best 12-18 month window to be allocated to Bitcoin every 4 years, and at the start of a dovish Fed multi-year regime which will see growing liquidity injected into risk assets.”None

According to the Capriole Investments report, Bitcoin is on the brink of significant growth, especially if the Fed changes its policy. The fourth quarter and the traditional post-halving period could provide Bitcoin with favorable conditions for price appreciation.

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