Recent days have seen a shift in sentiment in the Bitcoin market as participants begin to adopt a more cautious approach, suggesting the asset may fall below $100,000.
Signals from Prediction Markets
Data from Polymarket shows that a majority of bettors now believe Bitcoin will slide below six figures before the year ends. The market is pricing in a 62% chance of a drop under $100,000, reflecting growing conviction after BTC dipped under $110,000 for the first time in six weeks.
Analysis of Institutional Support vs. Whale Selling
Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research, noted that the bearish outlook cannot be dismissed. According to Jung, institutional buyers and corporate treasuries have so far absorbed much of the selling pressure from long-term holders. That dynamic has kept the market from experiencing a deeper breakdown.
However, the analyst warned that this balance could shift quickly. “If large investors decide to unload more aggressively, the key question is whether there will be enough new inflows to absorb that supply,” Jung said. Without continued demand from big players, a break below $100,000 becomes increasingly likely.
A Critical Test for Bitcoin
For now, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war between resilient institutional demand and the looming threat of whale sell-offs. Prediction markets suggest traders are preparing for the downside, even as long-term forecasts continue to point toward six-figure gains. Whether BTC holds the line or cracks below $100,000 may determine how investors approach the final stretch of 2025.
Given the current favorable conditions and the threat of large-scale sell-offs, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, which may significantly impact its price performance in the coming months.
