Bitcoin has recently slipped below key support levels, raising concerns about a deeper correction. However, oversold conditions and upcoming macroeconomic shifts could provide fuel for a rebound.
Key Factors Influencing the Bitcoin Market
Institutional products continue to shape Bitcoin's market narrative. One of the largest holders, BlackRock's ETF, currently holds nearly 700,000 BTC. However, July saw a $102 million single-day outflow, highlighting the volatility associated with ETFs.
The upcoming approval of retail exchange-traded notes (ETNs) by the UK in October 2025 could serve as a fresh demand catalyst.
Technical Levels and Their Significance
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's slide below the 100-day simple moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement has stirred bearish sentiment. The RSI has dropped to 22, indicating potential short-term relief rallies. However, failure to reclaim the $115,000 mark could open the door to a test of the 200-day SMA near $110,000.
Bitcoin's Future Amid Macro and Regulatory Changes
A shifting macro backdrop could also play a pivotal role. The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling possible rate cuts in 2025, which could weaken the dollar—a historically positive tailwind for Bitcoin. On the regulatory front, the SEC seems to be softening its enforcement stance, while Europe presses forward with MiCA compliance requirements.
Globally, policy remains fragmented: 46 U.S. states have advanced Bitcoin reserve legislation, while some Asian markets are tightening exchange oversight.
Whether Bitcoin can regain momentum will largely depend on whether ETF inflows return robustly and if regulatory developments can foster confidence without imposing restrictive barriers.
