Analysts express optimism regarding Bitcoin's situation in Q4 2023 despite historical data regarding weak September performance.
Historical Data on Bitcoin in Q4
Economist Timothy Peterson shared data indicating that historically Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in Q4 about 70% of the time. On his X page, he stated: 'Exactly four months until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%.'
September as a Traditionally Weak Month
Despite September traditionally being Bitcoin's weakest month, Peterson remains optimistic. He noted that years like 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 were anomalies that aren't directly comparable to current conditions. Excluding these, the data skews toward 'positive yet less volatile performance.'
Long-Term Predictions and Trends
Other analysts are also downplaying Bitcoin's recent weakness, which pushed prices to their lowest levels since early July. Trader Donny noted that Bitcoin is 'frontrunning' the usual September dip, comparing current action to the 2017 bull market. He also highlighted Bitcoin's tendency to mirror gold's trajectory after periods of lag, a correlation that has remained intact in recent years.
The current market situation, along with steady institutional flows, sets the stage for a possible rise of Bitcoin to $160,000 by Christmas. However, it is crucial to remain aware of significant historical trends and the necessity of ongoing analysis.
