Bitcoin is entering a critical week. The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is being awaited with considerable caution in the market.
Why Powell’s Speech Matters for Bitcoin Price Prediction?
Bitcoin has become a macro-sensitive asset. Interest rate expectations, inflation data, and central bank guidance now directly influence its dynamics. In 2024, Powell used Jackson Hole to pre-announce rate cuts, and if he signals a similar move this year, it could change the market sentiment.
Inflation has started creeping higher again, with the PCE reaching 2.6% in June, while job creation has nearly stalled. If Powell acknowledges weakness in the labor market and hints at a September rate cut, liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin could benefit short-term. Conversely, if he emphasizes inflation risks and delays easing, the sell-off currently underway in BTC price may deepen.
What the Daily Bitcoin Price Chart Says?
Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, price action has turned decisively bearish since mid-August. After failing to hold above 120,000, BTC price has broken through its mid-Bollinger Band support and now hovers near 113,000. The lower Bollinger Band sits at 111,500, which aligns with a key short-term support level.
If Bitcoin price closes the week below 112,500, it sets up for a larger downside move. The next visible supports are layered around 105,000 and 100,000. A break beneath 100,000 would open the path to 95,000, with extreme panic potentially driving the market as low as 80,000–85,000.
Macro Triggers That Could Decide Bitcoin’s Direction
Several key events are expected that could impact Bitcoin's price:
* **Jackson Hole Speech (Aug 23):** If Powell indicates rate cuts, Bitcoin could bounce toward 118,000–120,000. If not, the slide continues. * **PCE Inflation Data (Aug 29):** A hotter reading would justify Powell’s caution, reinforcing bearish pressure. * **August Jobs Report (Sept 5):** Weak job growth would validate dovish calls inside the Fed, possibly rescuing Bitcoin from a deeper drop. * **CPI Release (Sept 11):** Inflation data will confirm whether tariffs are creating persistent price pressures.
Bitcoin’s performance in the range of 111,500 to 118,000 will serve as an important test of its resilience. Traders' attention is focused on Powell's upcoming speech, which could either relieve pressure on Bitcoin or set the stage for further declines.
