Bitcoin price analysis shows a close link to global money supply (M2) with a 90-day delay. Recent sharp declines in M2 suggest potential impacts on Bitcoin’s price.
Strong Correlation Between BTC and Global M2
Data reveals that Bitcoin's price has correlated highly with changes in global money supply M2 over the past two years, averaging a correlation of 89.7%. The highest correlation was recorded over a 1.5-year period at 92.6%, indicating that Bitcoin's price tends to reflect M2 movements with a slight delay, emphasizing the importance of monitoring global liquidity metrics.
Liquidity Dip Signals Potential September Impact
A recent sharp drop in global M2, the most significant in seven months, may begin to affect Bitcoin’s price trend by late September or October. Currently, Bitcoin continues to trade above $117,000, and the decline in liquidity could exert downward pressure on prices if similar trends from past cycles repeat.
BTC Market Faces a Turning Point
From March to August 2024, both BTC and M2 showed consolidation before rallying toward early 2025. However, a visible divergence has formed with M2 turning downward while Bitcoin remains elevated. Market observers are closely monitoring the situation to determine whether the current cycle is reaching a peak or possibly a final top.
The analysis indicates that the coming weeks may prove significant as traders assess whether Bitcoin will follow its established macro pattern in response to tightening global liquidity.
