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Bitcoin's Major Signals for the Current Cycle

Apr 2, 2024

The price of Bitcoin has dropped by about 9% since April, sitting around the $65,000 mark. Traders and investors are questioning whether this indicates a price top for Bitcoin in this current cycle, and what signs to be aware of.

Predicting market tops and bottoms accurately is complex, even for successful traders and investors. However, experienced individuals can analyze historical patterns, indicators, and signals to make informed guesses.

Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, identified 13 Bitcoin top signals to watch for this cycle. He shared these signals on X (previously known as Twitter) on April 2, emphasizing their importance over predictions or price targets.

Four out of the 13 signals have already shown high risk, according to Charles Edwards' on-chain analysis. These signals include the Hodler Growth Rate, Dormancy Flow, Percent of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit, and U.S. Liquidity.

The slowing down of the Hodler Growth Rate suggests that long-term holders are starting to sell off, which historically has been an indicator of a cycle's peak. Dormancy Flow tracks the activity of dormant Bitcoin wallets, and a peak in this metric usually precedes a cycle top by three months.

Moreover, the high percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit can trigger a mass sell-off when holders decide to cash in their profits. If Bitcoin price drops and the percentage of addresses in profit decreases, a bearish trend might emerge. Lastly, the year-over-year liquidity change of U.S. financial institutions has a notable impact on Bitcoin's price movement.

In summary, Charles Edwards warns of early signs of a potential top in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices for this cycle. However, these metrics are not yet at a critical level, and Capriole Investments foresees further bullish movement in the mid-term. Investors are advised to monitor these signals and others closely to make informed investment decisions while dealing with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article should not be considered as investment advice, as investing is speculative and involves risks to capital.

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