The recent discussion regarding a $1 million Bitcoin price target focuses on evaluating the impact of market changes and supporting factors.
Impact of ETFs on the Bitcoin Market
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024 removed structural barriers for institutional investors, accelerating their participation in the crypto market. Since then, ETF assets have significantly increased, surpassing the $100 billion mark by 2025, indicating growing interest from institutional asset managers.
Supply Dynamics After the Halving
The halving in April 2024 reduced new Bitcoin issuance. Research shows that 'ancient' Bitcoin supply—coins that haven't moved for over 10 years—is increasing, even as new issuance decreases. This reduces liquid supply in the market, creating potential conditions for price appreciation.
Future Projections and Risks
ARK Invest's models for Bitcoin by 2030 suggest a base case around $710,000 and a bullish case near $1.5 million, contingent on wide adoption of Bitcoin. However, many large banks, such as Standard Chartered, forecast more modest targets in the range of $135,000–$200,000 by the end of 2025, emphasizing the significant changes needed to reach the $1 million target.
Discussions surrounding a $1 million Bitcoin price target highlight the complexity and uncertainty in the crypto market. Achieving such a price will require not just institutional investments but a broader evolution of demand and supply.
