Bitcoin's price has fallen by 12% since the last halving, raising concerns about the predictability of historical price patterns.
Historical Trends and Price Changes
According to data from [IntoTheBlock](https://x.com/intotheblock/status/1832433850191949937), the BTC price was around $63,900 during the last Bitcoin halving event. It has fallen some 12% since then. Historically, BTC peaks tend to occur about 480 days after a halving event, meaning the next peak would be due in the summer of 2025. In the past, major price surges within 6 to 12 months following prior halvings ushered in new growth cycles for the crypto market.
External Factors and Their Impact
Already, the 2024 cycle has broken some traditional patterns. In March, before the halving occurred, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,800. This unexpected surge was attributed to the approval of [Bitcoin ETFs](https://coincu.com/281523-spot-bitcoin-etfs-see-211-million-outflows/) in the United States, enabling wider access to Bitcoin among institutional investors.
Future Predictions
Pivotal as it may have been, Bitcoin halving has come to, at best, depend mainly on regulatory changes and market sentiment. This could mean the entire cryptocurrency market might sail into more uncharted waters shortly.
Bitcoin's volatility is now at its worst following a halving event, and the four-year growth cycle is less predictable.
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