Bitcoin has once again set a new all-time high, raising discussions about whether the traditional four-year cycle theory in the cryptocurrency market remains valid. Analysts are evaluating the role of institutional investors and long-term holders in the current rally.
Breaking Down Classic Market Signals
Analyst Ki Young Ju noted that for years he followed a clear pattern: buying when whales accumulate, and selling when retail investors join in. However, he stated that this pattern no longer works. He emphasized that older whales are now selling to newer long-term holders, many of whom are institutional investors. 'The Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it. But that pattern no longer holds.' — Ki Young Ju.
Institutions Driving the Rally
Institutional activity has become the key driver behind this Bitcoin cycle. Regulated funds and ETFs have acquired over 900,000 BTC, surpassing the sales from major whales. Cryptoquant analysts highlight that the rally is not due to retail hype, as retail investors have been selling since early 2023, while large wallets started accumulating heavily in early 2024.
Market Outlook and Expected Dynamics
Despite Bitcoin dropping 2% today and currently trading at around $116,578, altcoins are showing upward movement. Expert Benjamin Cowen mentions that altcoins often rally during the summer, expecting funds to flow back to Bitcoin by the end of August. With Bitcoin's dominance around 60%, he sees signs that Bitcoin could take the lead again soon.
As market dynamics shift, institutional participation creates new realities for Bitcoin. The discussion on whether classic cycles still hold gains a new significance.
