In a recent statement, Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, declared that the traditional four-year crypto cycle, driven by Bitcoin halvings, is now obsolete. Hougan emphasizes that the once-reliable pattern is being overshadowed by deeper, long-term trends.
Rethinking the Four-Year Crypto Cycle
Matt Hougan argues that the classic four-year cycle, once related to Bitcoin halving events, has lost its significance. The latest halvings had a notably weaker impact on price movements than expected. Instead, broader macroeconomic and structural changes are becoming the key driving forces in the industry.
Impact of ETFs and Institutional Investments
Hougan notes that the emergence of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs has opened the door for mainstream investors to enter the market more easily. This institutional inflow, combined with increasing adoption by wealth managers and hedge funds, reflects a significant shift in how crypto markets operate. He also pointed to recent regulatory developments creating a more favorable environment for crypto innovation.
Future Projections for Investors
Investors looking toward 2026 and beyond should recalibrate their expectations. Instead of waiting for the next halving event to trigger a rally, Hougan encourages a focus on broader indicators: ETF flows, institutional buy-in, and supportive regulation. This evolving market structure may lead to fewer explosive surges but also fewer dramatic crashes, marking a move toward a more mature market.
In summary, the rules have changed, and understanding this new paradigm will be key for investors navigating the next phase of the crypto economy.
