Analysts from Bitwise predict that Bitcoin's peak may occur in 2026, challenging traditional theories about the four-year cycle related to halving. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan presented key arguments in support of this prediction.
The Four-Year Cycle is No Longer Relevant
Matt Hougan argues that the famous four-year bitcoin cycle has become obsolete. He presents three main arguments to support his point of view. First, the impact of halvings is diminishing; each subsequent halving loses half of its influence compared to the previous one. This phenomenon explains why post-halving gains have become less significant since 2012.
Second, there's an institutional revolution: since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $30 billion, replacing speculative purchases. Corporate giants are accumulating bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
Stable Growth Instead of Sharp Fluctuations
According to Hougan, unlike previous cycles often characterized by sharp rises and falls, the current trend may be more smooth and steady.
> "I could be wrong, but I am confident there will be significant volatility. And I think it will be more of a 'stable and sustained boom' rather than a supercycle." CITE_W_A
This suggests no sudden euphoria but rather a gradual rise supported by strong fundamentals. Some traditional analysts, such as Rekt Capital, still predict the market could peak as early as October 2025.
Regulation as a Key Stability Factor
Hougan emphasizes that improving regulations also plays a vital role. He believes it has reduced systemic risks that previously threatened the sector.
> "The risk of an explosion is mitigated thanks to improved regulation and the institutionalization of the space." CITE_W_A
However, despite the positive trends, there are still risks associated with companies that accumulate BTC through debt or issuing new shares.
Bitwise's predictions about Bitcoin peaking in 2026 are sparking new discussions in the cryptocurrency community, opening up opportunities for further analysis of market trends.
