Bitwise, an investment firm, has released a report outlining three potential price scenarios for XRP by 2030 based on a capital asset pricing model.
How Bitwise Built Its Forecast
Bitwise used several factors to calculate XRP’s potential price. Alpha measured XRP-specific drivers like regulatory clarity or major partnerships.
Beta assessed how XRP's price moves compared to the overall crypto market, set at 1.92. Bitwise also assumed a 60% annual market return, aligning with a scenario where Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2029.
The model included a volatility-based discount factor, reducing expected returns based on XRP’s historical price fluctuations.
XRP Price Predictions for 2030
In the bear case, XRP adoption in payments and tokenization remains weak. Alpha is -50%, and volatility is high. The model predicts XRP could fall from $3.08 to $0.13 by 2030, indicating a -59% annual return.
The bull case anticipates steady growth without major regulatory setbacks. With alpha at zero and lower volatility, XRP price could rise to $12.68 by 2030, yielding a 27% annual return.
In the max case, XRP achieves meaningful market share in global payments and tokenization. With slightly positive alpha and lower volatility, XRP might climb to $29.32, reaching a $2.9 trillion market cap.
Long-Term Outlook for XRP
Bitwise also reviewed the factors that give XRP its value. The token supports transaction fees, mitigates spam on the ledger through reserve requirements, and serves as a bridge currency for multi-asset transfers.
Real-world usage is underway. Companies like SBI Remit and MoneyMatch utilize XRP-based solutions for fast cross-border payments in Asia and underserved markets.
Bitwise remains confident in XRP's long-term potential, citing increasing adoption and a clearer regulatory environment as key drivers for its future growth.
