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Bitwise Predicts Shift in Bitcoin Cycle, Forecasts Growth in 2026

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by Giorgi Kostiuk

5 hours ago


Bitwise, led by CIO Matt Hougan, has declared that the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle is losing relevance. He predicts that 2026 will be a key growth year amid changing market dynamics.

Bitwise's New 2026 Bitcoin Growth Prediction

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has lost its influence. He sees 2026 as a year of steadier growth. Hougan highlighted that institutional factors are diminishing the significance of the traditional cycle, with market dynamics now influenced by regulatory changes and ETF developments.

Market Shifts Due to Institutional Capital Influx

Major players in the cryptocurrency industry are adapting to these new dynamics, anticipating a steady influx of institutional capital. Bitcoin's market structure is evolving, particularly due to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have driven price fluctuations.

Halvings Diminish as Institutional Strategy Dominates

Historically, Bitcoin's value surged post-halving events. However, the diminishing impact of halvings reflects a maturing market led by institutional strategies. Experts predict that the market will face a less volatile boom, with institutional involvement creating more predictable growth trends.

The halving’s impact cuts in half every cycle, making it less powerful over time. In contrast, broader structural changes — including institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the rise of crypto ETFs — are shaping a new market dynamic.Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise

The shift from the traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin to a more stable growth model underscores the significance of institutional involvement and regulatory changes in shaping the cryptocurrency's market dynamics.

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