Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has updated projections for the chances of approval for crypto ETFs in 2025, noting positive signals from the SEC.
Approval Odds for Popular Crypto Assets
According to Balchunas, the approval probability for ETF applications of major crypto assets such as Litecoin, Solana, and XRP is 95%. A 90% probability is estimated for cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche. The SEC's classification of these assets as 'commodities' and the existence of futures regulated by the CFTC are key factors increasing their chances of approval.
Uncertainty Surrounding SUI and Tron
The approval probability for SUI is assessed at 60%, while no probability is given for Tron (TRX) as its final decision date extends to 2026.
Overall Approval Forecast
According to the latest data, the approval probabilities are:
* Litecoin (LTC) – 95% * Solana (SOL) – 95% * XRP (XRP) – 95% * Dogecoin (DOGE) – 90% * Cardano (ADA) – 90% * Polkadot (DOT) – 90% * HBAR (HBAR) – 90% * Avalanche (AVAX) – 90% * SUI (SUI) – 60%
The expected approval of crypto ETFs in 2025 reflects significant confidence from analysts, particularly regarding popular cryptocurrencies. However, uncertainty surrounding SUI and Tron leaves questions open and requires further observation.
