A recent report from Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, analyzed the Federal Reserve's recent meeting on July 30. The report identified key levels and market expectations amid potential policy shifts.
Focus on September Fed Meeting
At the Fed meeting, the interest rate is expected to remain at 4.5%, and market attention has shifted to September 17, with a 61% probability of a rate cut. The report highlights three key factors driving September expectations: cooling inflation data, reduced tariff risks through recent trade agreements, and mounting political pressure for rate cuts.
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD is trading near oversold conditions with the relative strength index (RSI) at 30. Key support is at 1.145 and resistance at 1.161. A potential rate cut in September could fuel a new uptrend for this currency pair.
Outlook for S&P 500
The S&P 500 index is hitting record highs with upside targets at 6,446 and 6,500 if rate cut expectations strengthen. The report underscores that the Fed meeting serves as a catalyst for market positioning rather than an immediate policy change.
Given the combination of economic and geopolitical factors, even subtle shifts in the Fed's tone could influence the rate cut probabilities for September, potentially triggering significant moves across currencies, equities, and risk assets.
