- Cardano prepares for September decline
- Cardano’s bearish momentum grows with SRSI, MACD, and VRVP
- Is Cardano’s 2022 support line strong enough to hold?
Analysis suggests that changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could trigger a decline in Cardano's value in the coming months.
Cardano prepares for September decline
In May 2019, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut, lowering rates from 2.42% to 2.39%. At that time, the public debt stood at $22 trillion, and today it has increased to nearly $35 trillion with interest rates now at 5.33%. When the rates began to fall in 2019, Cardano experienced a sudden drop that continued for months until early 2020. Amid further rate cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market continued to decline. A similar scenario could unfold now, potentially bringing Cardano's price down to around $0.15.
Cardano’s bearish momentum grows with SRSI, MACD, and VRVP
Many traders focus on short-term movements, but a longer-term view can provide a clearer picture. Cardano’s monthly Stochastic RSI (SRSI) and MACD are giving off bearish signals. The SRSI, which tracks momentum, has been declining since March 2024 and is nearing the oversold region. The MACD also shows downward pressure with the MACD line crossing below the signal line. The Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) adds to the bearish outlook by indicating weak support at current price levels.
Is Cardano’s 2022 support line strong enough to hold?
Despite bearish indicators, a few factors could prevent a steep drop. Currently, Cardano lies within a macro Fibonacci golden pocket, providing support between $0.2951 and $0.3204. However, Cardano has fallen below the 78.6% retracement on other Fibonacci levels, raising doubts about the strength of the current support. A stronger support level lies at $0.2349, respected during the 2022 bear market.
Considering all factors, Cardano may see a short-term uptrend before the September 18 Fed meeting, followed by a potential 2-3 month decline. A cautious strategy would be to wait for Cardano to drop below the golden pocket before shorting.
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