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Challenges Faced by Bitcoin in Current Financial Landscape

Jun 14, 2024

The cryptocurrency market appears to be losing its luster as conventional assets like stocks and bonds have outshined Bitcoin in recent times. Following its bullish surge in the initial quarter, Bitcoin seems to have relinquished its appeal. Global equities and commodities have surpassed Bitcoin in performance, with the cryptocurrency losing about 5% of its value since early April. Even gold has managed to outperform Bitcoin during this period, although Bitcoin reached a peak of $73,798 in March. Since then, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain its upward trajectory, with its rallies consistently losing momentum. Previous catalysts for excitement, such as inflows into US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, no longer hold the same sway over the market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts, spearheaded by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have analyzed the demand for Bitcoin ETFs, noting a net inflow of approximately $15 billion. They suggest that a considerable portion of these inflows could be a shift from digital wallets on exchanges to the new ETFs. Adjusting for this shift, the analysts estimate the net flow into crypto assets this year, encompassing ETFs, venture capital fundraising, and CME Group futures, at around $12 billion. This amount marks a significant decrease from the flows seen in the previous years. Concerns linger among experts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who express doubt regarding the sustainability of the current inflow level throughout 2024. Bitcoin, currently priced at $66,750, has quadrupled in value since the beginning of last year, recovering from a bear market in 2022. Despite this remarkable growth, Bitcoin's performance this quarter falls behind that of traditional assets. Global indices for bonds, equities, and commodities compiled by Bloomberg have either remained steady or increased by more than 5%, surpassing the returns seen from Bitcoin. One possible reason for Bitcoin's recent stagnation could be attributed to heightened selling by miners encountering more challenging circumstances. The miners, rewarded with Bitcoin for validating transactions on the blockchain, had their rewards halved in April as part of a scheduled event aimed at reducing mining incentives. This reduction has presented a tougher landscape for mining activities, potentially exerting additional selling pressure on the market. While proponents of Bitcoin envision future prices exceeding $100,000, skeptics argue that cryptocurrencies lack inherent value. The current underperformance of Bitcoin compared to traditional assets raises doubts about the sustainability of the recent crypto surge.

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