Bitcoin's future has come under discussion following criticism from a leading crypto researcher, highlighting concerns over security and governance.
Bitcoin's Shrinking Security Budget
Cyber Capital founder Justin Bons pointed out that Bitcoin's block rewards will drop to 0.39 BTC per block by 2036. At current value, this translates to around $2.3 billion per year in miner incentives. Bons claims this figure is too low to secure a network that could be worth trillions of dollars. Without sufficient funding, Bons warns that Bitcoin could become increasingly vulnerable to 51% attacks.
Governance Issues in Bitcoin
Another issue, according to Bons, is Bitcoin's governance. Over the years, the Bitcoin Core development team has resisted major changes, including proposals for larger block sizes or inflation beyond the strict 21 million supply cap. While this rigidity has preserved Bitcoin's scarcity narrative, Bons believes it could backfire if future crises force changes, risking chain splits or inflationary measures that could undermine trust in the system.
Impact of Quantum Computing on Bitcoin
The rise of quantum computing adds another layer of uncertainty. Bons noted that breakthroughs could eventually threaten Bitcoin's cryptographic protections, especially in older wallets. Opinions differ on when this risk will become critical. Some, like Google's Craig Gidney, expect vulnerabilities between 2030 and 2035, while other experts suggest that the danger could arise much sooner, potentially impacting up to 30% of coins in circulation.
Bons' warnings do not signal an immediate collapse, but highlight structural issues that may challenge Bitcoin's dominance in the future. Investors should carefully monitor changes in security, governance, and quantum computing threats.
